Polls are rigged for Joe Biden
Turn the polls on the US election : City centers are on fire, shops are looted - and Trump sees his chance
Donald Trump sees his chance. He can win the election in November. There are signs of a change in sentiment in the United States. Citizens see images of radicalized mass protests in many cities: inner cities are on fire, shops are looted, extremists from both camps are shooting at each other, in Kenosha (Wisconsin), Portland (Oregon) and elsewhere.
The fear of chaos and violence, of the loss of public order and property is suddenly more on the minds of many voters than the fear of Corona and the economic crisis caused by the pandemic. You can see it in the polls. Trump is catching up, his challenger Joe Biden is falling behind.
Suddenly the outcome of the election on November 3rd is open again. And Trump is doing everything to keep the topic that gives him the chance for a comeback public - even if it is through provocations that no president has allowed himself to do before him. He calls on his supporters to recapture the streets from the left-wing protest movement.
On Tuesday he flew to Kenosha - but not to mourn the victims' families and to call on the residents to show solidarity and reconciliation. Trump traveled there to fuel the confrontation. He visited the ruins of buildings after the riots that had lasted for days. He threatened to send security guards against the mayor's wishes. “You have to react decisively, hard and strong. And be ready to use additional forces, ”he said when meeting the police. And he declares the unrest a case of "domestic terrorism".
Why is the mood changing?
Last Tuesday, a police officer shot a black family man in the back seven times. Then there were mass protests. Houses and cars were on fire. A counter-movement was formed that would like to take the defense of public order into its own hands. One of the vigilante activists, Kyle R., 17 years old, shot dead two protesters. Was it murder or self-defense as his lawyer claims?
Before leaving for Kenosha, Trump expresses understanding for the young man charged with murder. He was probably in great need and had to fear that he would be killed. When before did a president intervene in an ongoing investigation?
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In the months before, it seemed like the election was over. As if the president was fighting against overpowering forces: the corona pandemic with a shockingly high number of dead and infected, also in an international comparison. As well as the subsequent recession that cost millions of Americans their jobs. It robbed Trump of the most important argument for a second term in office: that the economy was doing better under him than under the Democrats, especially since the higher taxes and stricter environmental regulations were planning.
How are the surveys developing?
In the first weeks after the outbreak of the corona pandemic, Trump was within striking distance of Biden: at the beginning of May he was four to five percentage points behind him, which roughly corresponds to the statistical error rate of the surveys. He believed he could make up this gap in a final sprint in autumn. He had succeeded in 2016 when most were expecting Hillary Clinton to win.
[More on the topic: Read here how Trump mobilizes "patriots" to fight against "chaos".]
But since May, Trump has been going downhill for the time being. Biden extended the lead to ten percentage points on the average of the nationwide polls at the end of June. In July, Biden was almost all nine percentage points ahead of Trump. And in mid-August, when the Democrats held their party conference, 7.7 percentage points. The Republican Congress followed. In the meantime, Biden's lead has shrunk to six percentage points.
Six percentage points nationwide still look like a comfortable cushion, at least for the so-called “Popular Vote”: If the proportion of votes remains about this, Biden would receive five to six million more votes nationwide than Trump. In the US electoral system, however, whoever receives the most votes nationwide does not become president. Whoever has a majority in the "Electoral College", the body of electors sent from the 50 states, becomes president.
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Each of the 50 states is counted individually. And the whole state is attributed to the winner there, regardless of whether he wins it close or high. Each state has a fixed number of electors according to its population. There are a total of 538. A president becomes a person who has an absolute majority, i.e. at least 270.
What is going on in the "Battleground States"?
In most of the 50 states the majorities are clearly distributed, they reliably elect the Democrats or the Republicans. That is why the outcome of the election depends on a few so-called “swing states”, some of which are mostly blue (Democrats) and sometimes mostly red (Republicans). Since the fight revolves around them, they are also called "Battleground States". In 2020, six stand out: Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin to the north on the Great Lakes; they were the decisive factor for Trump's victory in 2016. As well as in southern Arizona, Florida and North Carolina.
One could enumerate more: Ohio and Iowa, which some polls are already seeing trend towards Trump, and New Hampshire - but the eyes of the polls in the USA are on these six. Trump can draw hope from the development of the polls in these six states. At the end of June it was 6.2 percentage points behind Biden on average in the polls. Now it is only 2.7 percentage points. Thanks to the images of the violence in the cities, which mostly have Democratic mayors and local councils with a democratic majority, he has made up for more than half of the backlog in the “Battleground States”.
In the contested states there are 101 electoral votes
If this trend continues, an election victory for Trump will be within reach - very real, without manipulation attempts such as the threat of questioning the legality of postal votes. It is enough to stir up the fear of chaos, violence and the loss of state control over public order, and the mood could turn completely. Such an election campaign can be viewed as dirty and irresponsible. But it can lead to Trump's victory.
If you take all regional polls for the 50 states at their current face value, Biden would not only clearly win the “Popular Vote”, but also after electors: 337 to 201. But there are some states with only a narrow lead Biden. If you take the six “battlegrounds” with their 101 electoral votes out of the equation, there is 251 to 186 electoral votes in Biden's favor. Neither of them has the 270 electoral votes for sure.
Biden has the easier task. He only needs to win one big or two small of the six states and he's there. Trump, on the other hand, must win at least five of the six and he must not lose Florida or Pennsylvania. His path to the second term is more difficult, but it is possible.
What slogans does Trump advertise with?
Trump has focused entirely on this message: the Democrats have been infiltrated by radicals. They team up with arsonists and murderers. They want to disarm the police and deprive them of the opportunity to protect public order through “defunding”, the withdrawal of money. Biden pretends to be a moderate middle man. But he was old and weak and weak-willed and was becoming the defenseless tool of the radicals, Trump claimed in an interview with right-wing broadcaster Fox News on Tuesday.
He himself is the opposite, says Trump: full of energy. With a clear idea of what he wants to achieve. And the only support that can guarantee public order in this dangerous situation and protect the property of righteous citizens from a left-wing mob. In short: the arsonist advertises himself as a firefighter.
How does Biden respond?
Joe Biden and the Democrats see the danger that Trump, by stirring up fear of anarchy, can turn the mood in the electorate and also split the supporters of the Democrats into two groups: supporters of the protest movement around "Black Lives Matter" and moderate Democrats who oppose radicalization of the protests. He flew to Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania on Monday to win the votes of workers in the city that once stood for good jobs in the coal and steel industries. On the one hand, the Democrat distanced himself from the riots during the protests and, on the other hand, blamed Trump for the escalation of violence.
Riots, looting and arson are not legitimate protests, stressed Biden. Such behavior is a violation of the law. Whoever does it belongs behind bars. “You know me. You know my life story. You know my family. Ask yourself: Do I look like a radical socialist who has a soft heart for looters? "
Biden also uses harsh words: Trump is "a poisonous figure". The President sowed violence instead of fighting it. Trump is not able to pacify the country. Just as little as he was able to protect citizens from Corona. The riots cannot be blamed on the Democrats. They happen while Donald Trump is president and in charge of the nation.
Editor's note: An earlier version of the text contained an incorrect graphic about the electors with an incorrect assignment to Trump and Biden. We have now corrected this.
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